Looking for the next Target/Tar-jehay

As I looked at dollar store brand of anti-bacterial pump hand soap at my kitchen sink the other day, I began to wonder who will take advantage of the importance of value by making it fashionable in the year ahead. This small pump looked somewhat well designed, but the dollar store brand logo certainly was not "fashionble."

Target (pronounced as "tar-jehay" in nice neighborhoods, "tar-ghetto" in not so nice ones) has done a very nice job in the past decade of making this value brand hip (despite what feels like a creative slip in their recent Christmas pagent TV spots).

Even though I struggle to remember their tag line (Expect More. Pay Less), Target clearly understands they can attract customers by having them feel they can get a smart bargain when shopping in their stores. In fact, Target has taken this to a whole new level not just through marketing of their image - but through use of design (in stores, through designer products, etc). They have done a terrific job in other areas as well, including their community and educational based charitable programs, but they have clearly made it much easier for even upper middle class shoppers to say they have just purchased something at "Tar-jehay" versus Wal-Mart.

Now Target is not really a badge brand - or something we display to the world as a reflection of our taste and personal identity (think cars, fashion lables, alcoholic beverages in social situations, mobile phones, etc). But they have managed to take advantage of a consumer need to feel they have obtained great value from a shopping experience. I may be wrong, but it feels like the times are once again ripe for other brands to follow this lead.

I looking for sources of insight on what societal trends we see and what consumers historically do during tougher economic times (e.g. buy more small luxuries like chocolate bars, fashion trends, etc). I found an article that explains that during the 1930's, "Kellogg, Chevrolet, and many other companies blossomed while their rivals were wilting (because) they invested in marketing and innovation." I also stumbled across the book Obamanomics: How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will Replace Trickle-Down Economics (Economics in the Obama Presidency), and while this looks interesting, it is not exactly what I was looking for. I know there is more out there so if anyone has anything to share, please send it on.

I read recently the the word "opportunity" is out these days. While I hope this is not entirely the case, I understand an atmosphere that is creating a need for substance and value versus simply "conceptual values." In fact, Wal-Mart appears to be best positioned right now to take advantage of the economic downturn. As Britt Beemer, CEO of America's Research Group and author of "The Customer Rules" suggests "Retail is a game of momentum, and whoever has the momentum wins."

If you are reading this, please feel free to submit ideas on who is either making value more fashionable these days or is best poised to do so.

Thanks.

Go Pepsi!

Pepsi is doing the right thing in my book by linking a couple of things that I have talked about in my last two posts - generating optimism and looking to the Y generation or Millennials for hope. They have even done some research on the subject to be able to claim that this group is "particularly hopeful about the future, with 95% agreeing that it is important to maintain a positive outlook on life."

In fact "Pepsi Optimism Project" research on the mind-set of Millennials found that this particular generation is "more confident and excited about the future than any other."

I really wonder if this called for a Pepsi logo redesign - but I'm not totally opposed to what they have done - and I guess their research suggested that "...that 95% of Millennials make positive associations when they think of the word "change." They also associate the word with sentiments including "new," "progress," "hope" and "excitement." Regardless it was interesting to learn that this is Pepsi's 11th logo in its 110-year history.

I say bravo, Pepsi! Ignore the negative comments of Ray Graj, of Graj & Gustavson. Tell him to go ahead and stick his own head in the sand if that is the way he feels. Some people would suggest that any publicity is good publicity, but is this sense of negativity what you want to be known for Ray?

Positive Momentum, or Don't Worry, Be Happy

I have been trying to think of a way to express my annoyance about the negativity or doom and gloom that the media perpetuates, without sounding too negative. I felt like the perfect opportunity presented itself in the report from the NY Times and other many other news outlets about a week ago. Dr. Nicholas A. Christakis, a physician and social scientist at Harvard Medical School and James H. Fowler, an associate professor of political science at University of California, co-authored a study that talks about the idea that "happiness is more contagious than previously thought". In fact, since hundreds news outlets reported on this story, I thought I'd wait and see if there was any momentum behind the idea.

Alas, it feels like the media doom and gloom stories still outweigh the fact that 93% of people have jobs and we are heading into a season of brotherly (and sisterly) love. But I have re-looked at this news just now and found some interesting things.

Following blog links to this story by, Stephen J. Dubner, the co-author of Freakonomics: The Hidden Side of Everything, (the bestselling really fun book about economics), I was surprised to learn that the mood of the blogosphere is being tracked in what appears to be a pseudo-scientific way through something called Moodviews: Tools for Blog Mood Analysis.

But let’s start with the Christakis/Fowler study which is fascinating all by itself. It "analyzed information on the happiness of 4,739 people and their connections with several thousand others — spouses, relatives, close friends, neighbors and co-workers — from 1983 to 2003." The most interesting finding is that the happiness of people two to three degrees away from you may have an even greater effect on your happiness. In fact, even though the researchers acknowledge that social contacts were less important to happiness than personal circumstances, friends of friends of friends can have a very important effect on your happiness.

This feels like a real insight: “There’s kind of an emotional quiet riot that occurs and takes on a life of its own, that people themselves may be unaware of. Emotions have a collective existence — they are not just an individual phenomenon.”

While this is something we might expect at a sporting event or concert, this may be happening with everyday contact with your family, friends and neighbors.

On the other hand, "almost-insightful" - but perhaps somewhat more obvious is the idea that "people in the center of social networks were happier than those on the fringes. Being popular was good, especially if friends were popular too." Perhaps there is more interest in how you actually map this type of thing. I suppose that if I really studied up, I'd get the cool looking graphic, but it is not very clear to me at the moment. (I also wonder - perhaps mischievously, if this happiness idea is true for goth or emo types };-/.)

The NY Times story on the study is a good read and covers lots of ground, including things like:

• criticism of the methodology of the study by other academics (the riffing of NY Times readers is also interesting)
• the idea that unconscious signals of well-being packed more zing than conscious feelings of resentment
• the physical and temporal proximity of other happy people directly correlates to their ability to affect your happiness
• reference to "a separate study of 1,700 Facebook profiles, (which) found that people smiling in their photographs had more Facebook friends and that more of those friends were smiling (I'm changing my picture again, immediately following this post!!
• sadness appears to be transmitted the same way, but not as reliably as happiness
• findings that a joyful coworker did not lift the spirits of colleagues, unless they were friends

In the meantime, within the blogosphere, Moodteller has created MoodViews - or graphs of what the mood of society. Moodgrapher claims to have made a number of interesting discoveries and perhaps I am being harsh by calling their approach "a pseudo-scientific" - especially since they are using what appears to be advanced computer programming and have written papers on the subject.

Specifically, by tracking around 5000 blog posts every hour "using statistical language processing methods" and "textual features of the posts" (i.e. counting the number and percentage of times words like "happy", "sad" "excited" and at least 49 other words I counted on their site appear in blogs) they have developed a computer model that claims to track the mood of society through the web.

Now I find this very cool and fascinating that someone is looking at patterns from a mile high perspective - but wonder how they can grab words out of context and make such bold predictions as showing "the impact of global events on global moods." By going to their site, they suggest we can "Find out whether it is true that people drink more during the weekend. Observe states-of-mind with a cyclic nature; e.g., people feel energetic in the mornings and relaxed in the evening. All in all, Moodgrapher is a great tool for analyzing mass-behavior over time."

So far, the related material or discussion around this has been about researching rather than pushing out viral ideas. For instance, there’s been some suggestions by the big brain behind Freakonomics, Steven D Levitt, that employers might track the mood of their workers.

This, along with the idea that if you can search for individual words you can search for words strung together - which conspiracy theorists have suggested is how our government has been monitoring us for quite some time - feels a little worrisome.

But the whole point of this is to stop worrying so much and help spread the happiness contagion. In fact, Professor Fowler reported to the NY Times, that now that he is so conscious of the effects of his own happiness on his friends and neighbors, when heading home form work he puts on his favorite song.

As I read this in particular Saturday morning, I was struck by the fact that after meeting a few hours earlier with a large bunch of really great guys, I've been walking around today singing the Bobby McFerrin tune "Don't Worry, Be Happy" (not my favorite, but I always liked this - and I found more than 3 dozen related YouTube videos using this song) - how cool is that?!

The Great Y Hope

Despite all the doom and gloom around the financial markets, the economy and unemployment, there is hope in the bigger picture. That hope comes from the underlying demographics of our society.

We all know that "self absorbed" of Baby Boomers have dominated the economy, and in many ways society's agenda for decades (this is why 60 is the new 40, etc). But while there is much talk regarding how the Generation Y or The Millennials (or the Echo Boomers) have contributed to the result of the recent presidential election and are influencing economic policy, there has been much less talk lately regarding how they will directly influence the health of our economy over the next few years.

The book Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation was published all the way back in 2000! Since then there are lots and lots of blog posts on the specific habits of Gen Y, but let's revisit the bigger picture to see the bright spots in our future.

The Boomer generation still remains the largest group in our economy and holds the bulk of the society's wealth. Despite the downturn in the markets, loss of home values and credit issues, this group has had many decades to accumulate wealth. But while Boomers are pulling back into protection mode, Gen Y is still preparing for or attending college, leaving college, establishing careers and starting families.

Marketers should remember that life or lifestyle changes represent significant opportunity. As members of the Y Generation finish school and begin to start to earn money, they are in a purchase mode. Even renters need furniture, electronics, household supplies, and entertainment. As they look to purchase homes, give birth to Generation Z, purchase larger cars, etc., the economy will receive a boost.

I'm not talking about Ytopia (since I must admit that I really don't understand what this is) but people who have studied the Y Generation suggest this group has very similar values and economic aspirations to their parents (perhaps "Echo Boomers" as 60 Minutes and Visa chose to call this group, is appropriate in these respects - although a Harris Poll would suggest this generation has other names for itself). They have been called "voracious consumers" and very brand oriented, versus their older Gen X cousins. They have been trained to be "doers and achievers." While clearly different based on their orientation to technology, let’s not also forget that their addiction to technology suggests they must spend to keep pace with Moore’s Law (which, incidentally, this month PC Magazine and Itel are suggesting will be broken with even faster growth).

Ultimately there is a lot of free information on specific generational influences and the similarities and differences between generations. I feel the 2007 PBS documentary "Generation Next" was particularly good, but email or leave a comment here if you wish for some additional links. But remember the bigger picture with a lighter heart.

My point is simply that while tight credit, growing unemployment, growing deficits and a number of other things the media seems to go on incessantly about create doom and gloom attitudes, demographics represent the scenario of a positive future.

So I ask you (few) readers to talk about this more positive outlook on our economic future as you hear talk of doom and gloom. Help to start a new attitude, or better still, a belief system around the direction our economy will take over the next few years. The demographic changes are real but our attitudes can help lead the way.

Sowing the Seeds of Prosperity

As the elastic band universe begins to snap back (or gyrate) I am wondering what seeds of prosperity might be put in this slingshot to be flung in the right direction.
Or perhaps another analogy is appropriate. I feel it is important to consider ways of creating positive energy versus feeding the fires of destruction. It may take time, but a forest will re-generate itself after a fire. The seeds that that find the choice locations and establish growth the soonest end up with the best light and as the tallest of trees.

Of course, Mother Nature will ultimately look after herself, but as the US Forest Service and the San Bernardino National Forest Association understands, there are plenty of opportunities to help the natural order by actually planting seeds.

I've spoken with several people from different walks of life over the past couple of week who acknowledge that it is natural for many companies to see marketing and advertising as an expense that may be the first to go in hard times. Yet just about ALL of these same people acknowledge that those that have the courage to market themselves aggressively in hard times will almost always be the ones that get out ahead. In fact people almost seem to believe this is conventional wisdom. But perhaps it is like the conventional wisdom IQ test which I just found. Many of ideas we have are somewhat more cliché than actually truly believed.

Ultimately the nature or character behind the seed (or brand, or business) will have a great deal to do with what grows first. Young White Spruce prefer to be slightly shaded. This tree usually begins under an Aspen forest. Aspens will re-sprout from solid roots after a fire. Aspen stands may actually grow bigger after a fire, when the sun has a chance to increase soil temperature and make it more favorable for suckering and root growth.

I am aspiring to be an Aspen - and not a White Spruce as the smoke begins to clear. I hope to spread already deep and broad roots. Rather than a shotgun approach of many seeds in a slingshot, perhaps the best approach under the current circumstances is to rebuild from strong roots.

On the other hand, I will be very interested to see what new seeds blow in and take hold as a result of the opportunity this forest fire has created. Some of this new growth will eventually be overshadowed by larger trees. But if and when appropriate, I may just choose to throw some of my own seeds into the wind.

Regardless, the trick will be to focus on the opportunity for growth versus staring at the smoldering fire. When more and more people stop focusing on the fires and start to notice plants re-growing, this growth is likely to become exponential. Yes, the forest may take a while to truly hide the ashes, but the biggest and strongest trees are likely to be those that started growing earliest.

In more human natural disaster terms, some economists who have studied the effects of hurricanes in Florida have talked about the positive "Jacuzzi effect". If the old bathroom is destroyed, one might as well upgrade and put in a Jacuzzi when rebuilding. It ultimately increases the value of the property. If enough people do this, a neighborhood is revitalized.

What Questions Will Be Asked?

As the dust settles around the financial crisis and perhaps as election fever begins to die next month, I think it may be important to understand what questions consumers will ask of our society, marketers and themselves. Perhaps just as important are the answers they will default to - in absence of good answers provided by those with the power to provide ideas.

Who is - and will be held responsible for the financial debacle taxpayers are footing the bill for?

More importantly, when will it be safe to spend what money we have on hand or have access to?

What trade-offs must be made in the meantime?

I have spent a big portion of my career asking consumer questions in qualitative and quantitative research, as well as in the company of smart minds. In what context does a category or brand play within a consumer's life? How does this consumer think about the category and the brand? Often there appears to be no simple or obvious answer. Often what appears might be the obvious answer - is not the correct one. A deeper insight is required. I've also seen cases where a deeper insight was desperately sought, but the answer was somewhat more obvious (parties will remain nameless on this blog).

Regardless of the specific answer, I believe it is even more important that we ask the appropriate questions - to which there may be more than one answer.

I took a very quick look for some statistics on how much money is spent on marketing research in this country. I suppose it is somewhat ironic, but I could find no research on the subject in the AMA, ARF, The Association of Consumer Research, or even Quirks or Greenbook and academic Marketing Research Institute International web sites.

Even the Marketing Research Association, 20o7 Annual Reports provides their own Net Assets of $2,475,530 in 2007 (bravo for managing your affairs much better than the independent Account Planning Association ever did before being rescued by the AAAA). But they do not indicate how much the U.S. market spends on marketing research. This would probably be very difficult to figure out - and perhaps some academic institution has done so somewhere along the line. But I believe it is fairly safe to say it is in the $billions.

My preference has often been to consider the broadest or contextual questions first and then narrow down to the more specific - although my experience is that not everyone has the time or patience (or funding) for this approach. But ethnographic research has grown in popularity over the past decade or so. I particularly admire the work done by my fellow countryman, Grant McCracken, having known people who have worked with him. But I confess that I have not read all of his books (I owned "Big Hair" at one point but have no idea where it is these days).

I'll bet that "Flock and Flow: Predicting and Managing Change in a Dynamic Marketplace" is a good one to pick up right now.

Ultimately, consumers themselves appear to be doing more research than ever before (albeit often unsophisticated) - given the access that the internet provides. Heck, Google (who is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today) with a global market cap of $106.25 Billion (and falling), based on a simple search page.

I would contend that there are segments of consumers who, by there nature -or connectivity to the web, ask a lot of questions and research a lot on the web. Even more consumers conduct research based on their level of involvement in a topic. But ultimately many of the questions that consumers might like to have answered are never properly articulated. Or people are simply too busy to go find an answer. But they will always default to some answer - even if they do this unconsciously.

The real marketing opportunity is not simply asking the questions we have, but figuring out what our target's questions might be and answering them for these consumers.

My Elastic Band Theory of our Universe

A few people who know me may have heard this one before. What I didn't realize until today, is that there actually is an Elastic Band Theory of tectonic plates as they relate to earthquakes as well as a theory called The Rubber Band (Dark Energy) Theory of the Universe - which relates to Einstein’s theory of relativity. The real thing is actually very scientific and perhaps geeky (as seen in this video).

I have tried to relate my thinking around the elastic nature of the universe to both cosmological and everyday aspects of life - including consumer behavior. It may be particularly relevant given the level of fear and panic in the financial markets right now.

I once used the concept of balancing on a fulcrum in a historical market analysis and strategy proposal to a wealth management client.

But a snapshot of the Rubber Band Theory video in midstream looks a lot like what the markets have done just as I have written this today:

Here are thoughts or examples around the broader concept:

• Everything is in a relative state of balance – not completely predictable, yet predictable from a larger perspective. The earth revolves around the sun in an elliptical orbit (versus circular).
• Our four seasons change and are predictable, but the weather next week is not.
• The circle of life is real but the variables often relatively vast. For instance most people on this planet will probably live within a short distance of where they have grown up, but the details of their lives, including relationships, jobs, etc are less predictable.
• When extreme forces push in one direction (political for an example), forces develop to push back.

I suppose this also relates to Newton’s Third Law of physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – although I’m not certain about the “equal” part. It may also relate to the idea of Yin-Yang or other balance concepts.

Unless we are witnessing the complete end of the stock market – which hardly seems likely from a hundred year perspective,
we are nearing one end of an elastic band as it relates to investor confidence. I would suggest there are significant opportunities to take advantage of the fact that the band will begin to contract soon. Exactly when is the less predictable time (and conditions) up for debate. But heck, the massively capitalized and strong business performance Dow stocks rather than just the Dogs of the Dow appear to be a huge bargain right now. We all know the smart investor will buy low and sell high. "Warren Buffet's Dirty Little Secret" really isn't that much of a secret.
Now if I only had a steady income and more cash in my pocket right now. Or the guts and patience to borrow and make money with other people’s money – which is what the credit markets are all about.
If anyone is reading this, I would love to hear your ideas of how the Elastic Band Theory of the Universe might work in other aspects of your life (or not).
Finally, on a related but different note, I find it just a little disturbing on a cosmological level that astronomers discovered (in 1998) that the expanding universe is actually accelerating vs. slowing down at the moment (perhaps my rubber band theory has holes?).

Under the 2 - or 'gauging' consumer behavior

When I am not driving my 80 mpg Malaguti Scooter around town (which can be challenging due to weather and distance), I unfortunately drive a gas guzzling Ford Ranger 4X4. But I have noticed that when I keep the tachometer gauge under the 2, my mileage improves significantly.
I believe this may have been something I heard a while back either from NPR's Click and Clack or someone else.

I would love to trade the truck in for a Prius these days, but can hardly justify the purchase of a new vehicle when the truck has long since been paid for. On the other hand, I can do my part to conserve and save money by driving slower. For my Ford Ranger, specifically this means accelerating much slower than usual from a standing start and driving at 55mph or lower on the highway. (According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a vehicle loses about one percent in fuel economy for every one mile per hour above 55 m.p.h. that it is driven.)
While I have thought about starting an "Under the 2" club, social network, movement, this may be a lost cause given that consumer behavior does not always match with consumer belief.
I learned a long time ago while working on GLAD garbage bags during a landfill crisis in the Toronto area that consumers say they want to do the right thing, but convenience and personal desires almost always overrule.
In the case of gas conservation, aside from the "go green" argument, a lot, if not most people, must know that a properly maintained car (including properly inflated tires (thanks Barack -which even FOX News acknowledged in 2006!) and simply avoiding rabbit starts can save them money at the pump. But although even I find it difficult to drive 'under the 2' when I am in a hurry, it never ceases to amaze me how often I am passed as I approach a red light, or get dirty looks for driving at 55 mph on the highway.
Are we all really in that much of a hurry? At what point does convenience or a little bit more of our time and effort intersect with our wallets? Of course an economist (or marketer) will tell you that the open market will always provide the answer. Many consumers will pay quite a bit for convenience and marketers will find ways to make money by saving you money. But what will be the tipping point for people driving and acting different in order to save gas?
As the price of gas falls to as low as $3.09 this week in some parts of Columbus and the price of oil dropped below $90/barrel today it will be very interesting to see where personal fears related to the economy intersect with personal habits. Sen. John Warner, R-Virginia has already proposed moving back to the 1970's 55 mph laws and that is getting the "one finger salute".
I have a better idea. Another vehicle in my name is a Volvo S40, which has an electronic gauge that, with the turn of a dial, can show you a number of things, including outside temperature, miles left in the gas tank, average miles per gallon you are getting over time - and most importantly - the gas mileage that you get while you are driving the car. It is amazing to see this measurement jump around as you put your foot on the accelerator slowly or quickly, or coast (it will max-out at 99.9 mph while coasting, which is fun to see). I propose we market the heck out of these types of gauges in all new cars and see if consumers develop some insight into their own driving behavior!

Online Customer Reviews - Influencers En Masse - or Connectors/Mavens?

It appears that a recent study has confirmed what I would have guessed was an 'almost-insight' around the influence of customer reviews. The study published June 23rd by OpinionResearch.com (ORC) states "83% of respondents polled indicated that online product evaluations and reviews had at least some level of influence on their purchasing decisions."

I would humbly suggest that there are at least two very different kinds of product (or service) reviews online generated by customers. Those offered by the retailer of the product or service and those found in public forums or sites that appear designed to attract those looking for opinions before a purchase. I would argue that the real influencers here are those that post to the retailer's web site.

Of course there are the product reviews by 'experts' or editors from magazines and online sites like cnet. They are actually being paid to be influencers (even when they are hopefully impartial).

There are other bloggers who are less obviously being paid to blog (not me yet - but I could easily be persuaded ;-).

I am simply suggesting that the reviews that are found on shopping sites like Amazon, CircuitCity.com, Orbitz and now even Kmart.com are likely to be the most influential by virtue of both their reach and their position within the purchase decision process.

While the web makes it relatively easy, I am betting that the majority of people will not do much research on their purchases. However, they will be influenced by what others are saying where they are purchasing.

There are consumers that will go to special sites such as epinions.com or visit blogs, or any number of sites such as those listed in the recent BusinessWeek article "Where Customers Go to Praise (or Bash) You." In fact the number of unique visitors to some these sites as suggested in this article is staggering (and perhaps misleading since it is unclear that all of these people are going to these sites for customer reviews). Then there are those customer review sites that purport to signal trends by virtue of their name, such as ThisNext.com.

There are other consumers that will pay to play with sites that potentially combine editorial and customer reviews, such as ConsumerReports.org, AngiesList (forgive me if I should be further separating reviews of national products versus local services - but I'm following the BusinessWeek lead). For specific audiences, these are terrific sites. For instance, Angie's List is a smart and growing business and brand, reportedly with "650,000 paying members, up from around 400,000 at the beginning of 2007" (and now reviewing doctors - I hear on NPR). But sites such as these represent a very small fraction of most markets for national or larger brands. I would speculate that while extremely influential to the subscriber, since the subscriber paid for the opinion, they may not be driving too many broader brand trends or market sales. In fact, in my experience, marketers do not pay very close attention to them (although perhaps they should).

What I would simply argue (albeit in a round-about way), is that there are those that set out to 'tip' opinion and influence through reviews. They will often influence people like themselves or those who make a habit of doing research on the web. They may also pull in those folks who may be making a highly involved or very large purchase decision - who might not otherwise take their time to do research.

The people posting to these opinion sites, as online "connectors" or influencers have the potential to start trends, but I have yet to see any really compelling argument that they do this consistently. Duncan Watts might argue this case well (see Sept. 8th post). But perhaps the fact that none of these sites has a market value anything close to a Google - or even an Amazon - is real proof of their level of influence (follow the money). On the other hand there are those critical 'point-of-purchase' reviews that may in many cases be generated by perhaps a broader group that want to share an experience, versus set out to be an influencer.

Heck, this may simply be the somewhat obvious 'almost-insight' that broader customer experience with a product or service is one of the most compelling factors of a brand success - especially if this experience is shared. I can't find any publicly available research, but I would suggest that online point-of-purchase sharing is likely to reach further and be the more influential than the special opinion sites or blogs. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough. Perhaps ORC has done further research in this area. But perhaps Amazon, Circuit City, travel sites and others have researched and understood this to be an insight.

A while back I was surprised that there were not more customer purchase reviews prominently displayed on more large retail sites. But I've recently noticed that many more large retailers, such as Best Buy, who did not appear to feature for many months after Circuit City did, prominently display this customer service now. Even Kmart prominently features customer reviews around their products now. Perhaps delays in getting here were because it means more work for the retailer (they have to collect, vet and post the reviews). But of course there are programs that once set up, will do most if not all of the work.

So the real influencers in the online space may be less the professional users of the product or service, and more those that have purchased the product from a large volume retailer. Perhaps an underlying 'almost-insight' is that point-of-purchase customer reviews may help to make online purchases feel smarter or safer than those made strictly in a bricks and mortar location.

In the meantime, if you are the type that likes to do more research online for a lot of different purchases (versus at point-of-purchase), you may want to check out and bookmark: Customer Feedback Central: 100 Places to Find Reviews for Every Product.

Cheers, The Spaniard

True Influencials

There was an article written in Fast Company (Is the Tipping Point Toast? -- Duncan Watts -- Trendsetting Fast Company) earlier this year that relates to an 'almost-insight' that I've wanted to talk about more for years.

Like Duncan Watts, I've had a problem with the concept of 'influencials", both as they are portrayed by Malcolm Gladwell and Ed Keller, former CEO of RoperASW and co-author of the The Influencials. I have been extremely skeptical that there are a group of people in society that can start trends by virtue of their personality or gregarious nature.

Watts contends that "a trend's success depends not on the person who starts it, but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend--not how persuasive the early adopter is, but whether everyone else is easily persuaded. " He has done an amazing job of applying math and experimental approaches to prove that these authors wrong. But I believe as both sides argue back and forth, they miss a somewhat obvious 'almost-insight'.

I believe that the most influential people in our society and most important to marketers are those that have specific job skills in the area of influence. GM has understood this for years as they advertised "Professional Grade" trucks. Nike and every other sports marketer has understood this when they use endorsements - simply on a local level through giving product away to high performing athletes. Tool or equipment manufacturers have understood this in designing and marketing products to home users. I have personally seen how primary care physicians watch what specialists do and copy their behavior and no longer referring all of their patients.

I have subscribed to emails from the Word of Mouth Association, WOMMA and like to look at the tactics that marketers use to try to create viral campaigns. I particularly admire Improv Everywhere in their ability to create viral messages. But if marketers really want people to buy things - there may be greater opportunities to leverage people who use their products or professional versions of these products in their work. Who would deny the true influence their favorite local chef might have in recommending ingredients or cookware? How about what sports equipment the trainer at the gym might recommend, auto parts recommended by the local mechanic - or even cleaning products by the cleaning lady?
This does not necessarily dismiss all of the influence that may be occurring over the web. But perhaps this is a good lead-in to future topic I would like to touch on - which is the influence of consumer reviews on the web....

so-called-insight

Here goes. Something for the ages. Not that anyone but an HR director might look at this in the process of checking references. But I've been thinking about joining the blogging community for some time now. I'm taking the plunge, despite reading the WikiHow How to Dissuade Yourself from Becoming a Blogger (A worthy read, I say, at risk of being one of those people that post calls out).

I have been in the idea business for many years. I may have even had a few good ones. But I have yet to publish much and I consider this as simply practice in getting my thoughts on an electronic page. As I said to a friend in Denver just now, I hope nobody reads this until I get better at expressing myself in this forum.

The title of this Blog "Almost-Insightful" is risky at the same time as being a little tongue-in-cheek. In the advertising agency business (which I have been in for more than two decades), I am not the first person to observe that the term "insight" is often thrown around far too loosely.

Creative people are often looking for an insight in the strategy or brief (rightly so), but the written so-called-insight is often something very obvious to those who are only somewhat familiar with the category or brand. Sometimes this is because true research (including time and money) has not been done. Sometimes the research has been done and there just isn't a compelling insight. Sometimes the strategy is somewhat obvious but simply needs to have a nuance or be expressed in an elegant or metaphorical manner.

So while I like to think of myself on the front end of observing potential emerging trends and often able to see a bigger picture or underlying theme, I write this knowing that most of my thoughts may not be incredibly insightful to many people. Because I may only have time to make some observations and perhaps do some secondary research on the things which I will touch. While I have some potential themes or 'thesis ideas' I hope to delve into, we shall see where this goes.

More to be revealed.