Thursday, February 23, 2012

Chunking - but not too much

The MIT 'scientific term' Chunking is defined in the NYTimes article as the "process, in which the brain converts a sequence of actions into an automatic routine." It might be looked at as the nirvana of many marketers of repeat purchase products and services - where our brains turn regular behaviors into habits that no longer need much brain activity.

The article goes on the describe a '3 step loop' that our brains go through that includes: a cue that tells your brain to go into automatic mode and which habit to use, a routine, which can be physical or mental or emotional and a reward, which helps your brain figure out if this particular loop is worth remembering for the future. "Over time, this loop — cue, routine, reward; cue, routine, reward — becomes more and more automatic."

The article talks about how the cues can be so incredibly subtle that they are barely even noticeable with scientific study. This reminds me of the 2007
Time Magazine cover story on addiction, which discus
sed how the reward centers of our brains can override our prefrontal cortex - or reasoning powers.


While we are all susceptible to addictive behavior thankfully, it is a smaller percentage of people who are more likely to form bad addictive habits. On the other hand, sophisticated marketers appear to have learned that habits are more likely to result from building off existing behaviors or rewards - rather than trying to create something entirely new. Or as I like to tell the uninitiated when talking about the marketing communications profession - we can't sell people things that they never really wanted it the first place. But we can tap into desires or rewards and increase their level of importance.

Sophisticated marketers like Target appear to be tapping into 'big data' to often unconscious consumer patterns that make us more susceptible to marketing messages and ultimately altered habits.

Ultimately I like to think about 'chunking' in a very personal way. If I can chunk to create good habits, I can create positive effects in my life. I wish I could chunk more around exercising and eating even more healthy than I already do (hard to avoid some treats like Chunky Monkey once in a while ;-).
But if I chunk too much - I lower my brain activity and tune out - which is something I rarely if ever want to do in my job and personal relationships.

Friday, November 11, 2011

I dispute the idea that "Brainstorming Doesn't Work"

The Washington Post recently published an article titled "Why Brainstorming Doesn't Work." It feels like they describe a really drab approach with simply "boardrooms with flip charts at the front of the room and candy on the table." It is true that many brainstorming session can lead to nowhere. But I believe, properly planned and structured, they can be both fun and useful.

There are many different techniques to try in a brainstorm, but my favorite has become 'brain-writing' exercises. This is where everyone must work individually for several minutes and then pass their ideas to the right or left, where everyone must then spark or build off each others ideas. This tends to get those who are normally quiet to express themselves, generates a much larger volume of ideas and really encourages building off one another.

Other techniques that can stimulate the competitiveness of agency people or marketers, like pitting small teams against one another, working against the clock, etc, can also produce better results. A big part of it is making the exercises fun - versus a real chore. I strongly believe that good ideas can come from play and fun - letting go of our often rigid ways of thinking. If nothing else, brainstorm sessions, if run properly, can open some minds up to possibilities.

In the end, if all we end up with is a long list of ideas, the exercise is likely to end up in a big "so what." I like to take an additional step of not only agreeing to the ideas with the most potential, but breaking into teams again and listing the barriers to execution, then brainstorming against these, to develop a small number of 'better packaged' ideas. This does not guarantee success, but certainly improves the chances of someone actually using an idea.

Ultimately, I believe that creativity comes from friction - or bringing together different thoughts or ideas to build something new. Some people can do this by themselves, but under the right conditions (especially in small groups) magic happens. I like to thing of this from the metaphor of a jazz band.

Friday, August 12, 2011

Strategy Specialist vs. Generalists

A colleague recently lamented, or at questioned the concept that "specialization in account planning" (marketing and marketing communications strategy) has "gone too far."

As more of a generalist than a specialist, I identify with some of his thoughts. I believe that specialists get so caught up in their area that they lose sight of a bigger picture (I feel more often digital/social media/mobile 'experts' these days). Basic consumer motivations and behaviors (like a need for simplicity) are overlooked. Often some fundamental marketing principles or approaches that should be used a means of organizing a larger story or argument are ignored.

At the same time, having worked in multiple categories, I have found that I have needed to learn the both category and target details (pharmaceutical MOA's; electronic data interchange/integration lingo; childhood development/thinking patterns; specific food processing practices; financial services principles, practices, regulations and motivations; etc, etc) - that make me appear to be at least a 'pseudo-specialist'. I (humorously) like to use the phrase "I know enough about a lot of categories to be dangerous." For instance, I now know more about medicine and drugs than I ever thought was possible for me.

I believe good strategist should make it a practice to have a stronger than average understanding of many research techniques, practices and principles - ideally both qualitative and quantitative (segmentation and tracking in particular). I have learned these things 'on the job' versus formal training, but I think it is important that we are both grounded in the fundamentals and continuously learning about new approaches or ways of looking at things.

At the same time, the dramatically changing media environment, or more specifically the fact that our targets are so much more connected to an online world today, makes everything feel more complicated. The constant development/invention of new digital products and services and means of connecting is dizzying at times. While 'car/auto', CPG, fast food or other specialists have existed for a long time (and appeared limited to many of us in the marketing world), digital/social media/mobile specialists (conversely) feel like the have a lot more cache today. Sometimes the younger brain that grew up in an attention deficit world feels more adapted and at home with this - and we have still have a youth obsessed culture, despite the fact that Baby Boomers control all the real wealth.

Strategists/planners in the marketing world, by definition, should be agents of change. We must attempt to stay ahead of the curve on both societal and category trends. But we can help our fellow colleagues in the marketing communication world by sharing interesting developments while bringing a healthy bigger picture/potential longer term perspective. I regularly see headlines about the 'death of traditional media' - from people who are not seeing the statistics that more people are watching TV - and for longer periods than ever before. This is not to deny that media is changing. In particular, both 'what' and 'how' we receive all types of content. But as I have recently paraphrased (bastardized?) fellow Canadian, Marshall McCluhan "The medium is still the message, but more than ever, content is king." Strategists/planners often need to translate/simplify issues and formulate and deliver engaging stories, designed to be passed on in appropriate ways.

Perhaps there should be a stronger distinction in the marketing communications strategist/planner world between those that have chosen to focus on content delivery (connection planners?) versus content. But in my (not so humble?) opinion, good strategists/planners need to not only have the fundamentals down, but also focus on the specific needs of their target and the developments in their category at any given time - and 'know enough to be dangerous.' For me anyway, the variety - or breadth as well as depth of exposure to products, industries and target mindsets has been both incredibly interesting and fulfilling - despite the fact that our business drives me nuts at times.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Innovative Product vs. Innovative Marketing?

An AdAge article titled "Is P&G's Biggest Innovation Old-Fashioned Functionality?" has me saying - I've been saying that for years. But I almost missed the light typeface subhead "Its Viral Hits Are Cool, but Focus on Fundamentals Is What Moves the Needle" - and I would agree with that thought as well.
Link

P&G ads and marketing communication used to be very boring - but people bought the products/brands because the company did a good job of continually improving the products - or giving us the perception they were being improved.

P&G marketers - perhaps without even realizing the nature of functional-to-emotional brand life-cycles, consistently chose to lean into functional messaging - which often led to somewhat informative, but not very exciting advertising. I'm not sure if sales of Tide have plateaued, but at some point, many consumers probably said - enough with price increases that come with the so-called-"NEW"-special-ingredients as they switched to less expensive brands.

At some point Tide, probably at the incessant pleading of their ad agencies, experimented with more emotional messaging (remember the ad with the baby covered in spaghetti?). But I'm guessing the ad testing they normally do did not show strong scores or the types of responses they were used to seeing. Which I chuck at, since it feels like they assumed their target actually consumed ads in the manner in which they were tested.

These days I don't see many Tide ads. I suspect the media planners and buyers are doing a much better job of targeting women. But the residual effect of continual product improvement messaging still has its effect on me. But this is an emotional versus a rational effect. I believe that Tide probably has the best product in the market. Right now, I'm not willing to pay the extra cost - but I suspect the emotional belief is what continues to make this brand a leader - despite the lack of emotional advertising.

In the meantime, P&G has experimented more and more with interesting emotional based advertising - ranging from talking stains to Old Spice spokesmen - often turning to creative hot-shops like C&P for this work. A new way of thinking at P&G versus the last few decades. A very welcome one from my perspective.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

New Creative Approaches to Focus Groups?

Interesting article in the NYTimes the other day about how Focus Groups are being treated more creatively these days.

Like at least one commenter said, I was using some of these techniques (music, food, adjustable image boards, symbolic objects, etc.) over a decade ago. They were both fun and revealing in many ways, since projection techniques often get people past the traditional responses one often gets in focus groups.

Some are saying these days that focus groups should never be used. Focus groups still have a place, but most often from an idea generation or concept exploration perspective in my experience. More importantly, especially in focus groups, respondents often need to be challenged in some ways because they will (often unconsciously) tell us what they think they should say, versus the real truth. The trick is often to create disruption. (I have some interesting case studies around this). There are different ways to do this depending on the objective and the respondents. For instance it may be finding ways to trip-up or catch respondents in a contradiction - and explore this with them to find where the real truth lies.

Very different techniques that some people advocate, like hypnosis or working with the unconscious mind, are approaches likely to continue to be limited to really brave clients. There are other less threatening ways to work with both respondents and clients. But what these techniques point out is the importance of the actual interpretation of interactions with consumers - or not always taking things at face value. This can be the difference between a good moderator and a bad one, or useful versus simply check the box results.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

An Energy Leap Forward for Humanity?

Wow - it's been a while - but here's an "energetic thought" I am transferring and slightly adjusting from my response to a TED discussion post:

Energy and the issues around this, will be the most important issue (especially when it connects with overpopulation) to this planet for the foreseeable future. While I am not a scientist, let alone physicist, an incredible leap in my imagination would be harnessing the concept of energy transfer from one place to the next. Hopefully this would not only solve the incredible thirst mankind has for powering all our activity - but reduce pollution and waste of all kinds.

For example, many human activities generate heat - which is then dissipated. Electrical currents bleed off wires and are all around us. A quantum leap will be in understanding how to harness the energy all around us - rather than shipping fossil fuel from the far reaches of the planet.

This may already be in existence in small ways, like solar collection panels on individual homes, or geothermal heating and cooling systems in particular. And I heard of someone who has developed a process that mimics photosynthesis - but which is many times more efficient than how plants do it (on NPR's ScienceFriday) - which will potentially be commercial with a decade, changing the concept and nature of solar energy. But as a larger concept - I suspect there may be scientists and perhaps mathematicians studying this. Perhaps there is a follow-on equation to one of the basic laws discovered - "energy cannot be created or destroyed."

Battery science might be either an important interim step - or potentially a distraction from the real goal? But one thing that could help get us there - which in itself is also a 'far out' idea is the concept of quantum computing - which is being studied by think-thanks and mathematicians in places. This will make current computing power look like the invention of the wheel or the stone age.


Now - shall I keep blogging here or transfer my energies to a new, blogging approach with more random - and less 'deep' thoughts?? Hmmm...

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Generation G and Alternative Green

Generation G is what Trendwatching.com is referring to today as the "generosity" (vs. greed) generation. This article/posting is feels like one of my earlier posts - i.e. far too long to do much other than scan quickly, especially when you are busy.

But I am glad to see that they included a thought around "green" or "eco-generosity" in addition to ideas around charitable acts (including how Perkonomics might apply).

I have been thinking recently about a post on the direction the green movement is likely to take in the coming years. Rather than simply be about saving the planet, which some "light-green" consumers might get behind (e.g. driving a 22 MPG hybrid Lexus), the I predict alternative energy to grow in popularity for economic reasons before environmental ones. Smart value combined with feeling good should present opportunities to marketers. Especially as the new administration in Washington pumps money into this area.

Yes alternative energy will remain only a fraction of the total energy our society consumes for many, many years. But from what I have seen there are several very innovative ideas out there that have the potential to catch on. At some point in my lifetime, I believe we will reach a real tipping point on this (Yes we can). When the economy starts to improve, we may need a bigger shove in this area (e.g. think gas tax that gets redirected into alternative fuel R&D). In the meantime there will be lots of opportunities as new things are tried.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Looking for the next Target/Tar-jehay

As I looked at dollar store brand of anti-bacterial pump hand soap at my kitchen sink the other day, I began to wonder who will take advantage of the importance of value by making it fashionable in the year ahead. This small pump looked somewhat well designed, but the dollar store brand logo certainly was not "fashionble."

Target (pronounced as "tar-jehay" in nice neighborhoods, "tar-ghetto" in not so nice ones) has done a very nice job in the past decade of making this value brand hip (despite what feels like a creative slip in their recent Christmas pagent TV spots).

Even though I struggle to remember their tag line (Expect More. Pay Less), Target clearly understands they can attract customers by having them feel they can get a smart bargain when shopping in their stores. In fact, Target has taken this to a whole new level not just through marketing of their image - but through use of design (in stores, through designer products, etc). They have done a terrific job in other areas as well, including their community and educational based charitable programs, but they have clearly made it much easier for even upper middle class shoppers to say they have just purchased something at "Tar-jehay" versus Wal-Mart.

Now Target is not really a badge brand - or something we display to the world as a reflection of our taste and personal identity (think cars, fashion lables, alcoholic beverages in social situations, mobile phones, etc). But they have managed to take advantage of a consumer need to feel they have obtained great value from a shopping experience. I may be wrong, but it feels like the times are once again ripe for other brands to follow this lead.

I looking for sources of insight on what societal trends we see and what consumers historically do during tougher economic times (e.g. buy more small luxuries like chocolate bars, fashion trends, etc). I found an article that explains that during the 1930's, "Kellogg, Chevrolet, and many other companies blossomed while their rivals were wilting (because) they invested in marketing and innovation." I also stumbled across the book Obamanomics: How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will Replace Trickle-Down Economics (Economics in the Obama Presidency), and while this looks interesting, it is not exactly what I was looking for. I know there is more out there so if anyone has anything to share, please send it on.

I read recently the the word "opportunity" is out these days. While I hope this is not entirely the case, I understand an atmosphere that is creating a need for substance and value versus simply "conceptual values." In fact, Wal-Mart appears to be best positioned right now to take advantage of the economic downturn. As Britt Beemer, CEO of America's Research Group and author of "The Customer Rules" suggests "Retail is a game of momentum, and whoever has the momentum wins."

If you are reading this, please feel free to submit ideas on who is either making value more fashionable these days or is best poised to do so.

Thanks.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Go Pepsi!

Pepsi is doing the right thing in my book by linking a couple of things that I have talked about in my last two posts - generating optimism and looking to the Y generation or Millennials for hope. They have even done some research on the subject to be able to claim that this group is "particularly hopeful about the future, with 95% agreeing that it is important to maintain a positive outlook on life."

In fact "Pepsi Optimism Project" research on the mind-set of Millennials found that this particular generation is "more confident and excited about the future than any other."




I really wonder if this called for a Pepsi logo redesign - but I'm not totally opposed to what they have done - and I guess their research suggested that "...that 95% of Millennials make positive associations when they think of the word "change." They also associate the word with sentiments including "new," "progress," "hope" and "excitement." Regardless it was interesting to learn that this is Pepsi's 11th logo in its 110-year history.

I say bravo, Pepsi! Ignore the negative comments of Ray Graj, of Graj & Gustavson. Tell him to go ahead and stick his own head in the sand if that is the way he feels. Some people would suggest that any publicity is good publicity, but is this sense of negativity what you want to be known for Ray?

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Positive Momentum, or Don't Worry, Be Happy

I have been trying to think of a way to express my annoyance about the negativity or doom and gloom that the media perpetuates, without sounding too negative. I felt like the perfect opportunity presented itself in the report from the NY Times and other many other news outlets about a week ago. Dr. Nicholas A. Christakis, a physician and social scientist at Harvard Medical School and James H. Fowler, an associate professor of political science at University of California, co-authored a study that talks about the idea that "happiness is more contagious than previously thought". In fact, since hundreds news outlets reported on this story, I thought I'd wait and see if there was any momentum behind the idea.

Alas, it feels like the media doom and gloom stories still outweigh the fact that 93% of people have jobs and we are heading into a season of brotherly (and sisterly) love. But I have re-looked at this news just now and found some interesting things.

Following blog links to this story by, Stephen J. Dubner, the co-author of Freakonomics: The Hidden Side of Everything, (the bestselling really fun book about economics), I was surprised to learn that the mood of the blogosphere is being tracked in what appears to be a pseudo-scientific way through something called Moodviews: Tools for Blog Mood Analysis.

But let’s start with the Christakis/Fowler study which is fascinating all by itself. It "analyzed information on the happiness of 4,739 people and their connections with several thousand others — spouses, relatives, close friends, neighbors and co-workers — from 1983 to 2003." The most interesting finding is that the happiness of people two to three degrees away from you may have an even greater effect on your happiness. In fact, even though the researchers acknowledge that social contacts were less important to happiness than personal circumstances, friends of friends of friends can have a very important effect on your happiness.

This feels like a real insight: “There’s kind of an emotional quiet riot that occurs and takes on a life of its own, that people themselves may be unaware of. Emotions have a collective existence — they are not just an individual phenomenon.”

While this is something we might expect at a sporting event or concert, this may be happening with everyday contact with your family, friends and neighbors.

On the other hand, "almost-insightful" - but perhaps somewhat more obvious is the idea that "people in the center of social networks were happier than those on the fringes. Being popular was good, especially if friends were popular too." Perhaps there is more interest in how you actually map this type of thing. I suppose that if I really studied up, I'd get the cool looking graphic, but it is not very clear to me at the moment. (I also wonder - perhaps mischievously, if this happiness idea is true for goth or emo types };-/.)

The NY Times story on the study is a good read and covers lots of ground, including things like:
  • criticism of the methodology of the study by other academics (the riffing of NY Times readers is also interesting)
  • the idea that unconscious signals of well-being packed more zing than conscious feelings of resentment
  • the physical and temporal proximity of other happy people directly correlates to their ability to affect your happiness
  • reference to "a separate study of 1,700 Facebook profiles, (which) found that people smiling in their photographs had more Facebook friends and that more of those friends were smiling (I'm changing my picture again, immediately following this post!!
  • sadness appears to be transmitted the same way, but not as reliably as happiness
  • findings that a joyful coworker did not lift the spirits of colleagues, unless they were friends
In the meantime, within the blogosphere, Moodteller has created MoodViews - or graphs of what the mood of society. Moodgrapher claims to have made a number of interesting discoveries and perhaps I am being harsh by calling their approach "a pseudo-scientific" - especially since they are using what appears to be advanced computer programming and have written papers on the subject.

Specifically, by tracking around 5000 blog posts every hour "using statistical language processing methods" and "textual features of the posts" (i.e. counting the number and percentage of times words like "happy", "sad" "excited" and at least 49 other words I counted on their site appear in blogs) they have developed a computer model that claims to track the mood of society through the web.

Now I find this very cool and fascinating that someone is looking at patterns from a mile high perspective - but wonder how they can grab words out of context and make such bold predictions as showing "the impact of global events on global moods." By going to their site, they suggest we can "Find out whether it is true that people drink more during the weekend. Observe states-of-mind with a cyclic nature; e.g., people feel energetic in the mornings and relaxed in the evening. All in all, Moodgrapher is a great tool for analyzing mass-behavior over time."

So far, the related material or discussion around this has been about researching rather than pushing out viral ideas. For instance, there’s been some suggestions by the big brain behind Freakonomics, Steven D Levitt, that employers might track the mood of their workers.

This, along with the idea that if you can search for individual words you can search for words strung together - which conspiracy theorists have suggested is how our government has been monitoring us for quite some time - feels a little worrisome.

But the whole point of this is to stop worrying so much and help spread the happiness contagion. In fact, Professor Fowler reported to the NY Times, that now that he is so conscious of the effects of his own happiness on his friends and neighbors, when heading home form work he puts on his favorite song.

As I read this in particular Saturday morning, I was struck by the fact that after meeting a few hours earlier with a large bunch of really great guys, I've been walking around today singing the Bobby McFerrin tune "Don't Worry, Be Happy" (not my favorite, but I always liked this - and I found more than 3 dozen related YouTube videos using this song) - how cool is that?!




Saturday, November 8, 2008

The Great Y Hope

Despite all the doom and gloom around the financial markets, the economy and unemployment, there is hope in the bigger picture. That hope comes from the underlying demographics of our society.


We all know that "self absorbed" of Baby Boomers have dominated the economy, and in many ways society's agenda for decades (this is why 60 is the new 40, etc). But while there is much talk regarding how the Generation Y or The Millennials (or the Echo Boomers) have contributed to the result of the recent presidential election and are influencing economic policy, there has been much less talk lately regarding how they will directly influence the health of our economy over the next few years.

The book Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation was published all the way back in 2000! Since then there are lots and lots of blog posts on the specific habits of Gen Y, but let's revisit the bigger picture to see the bright spots in our future.

The Boomer generation still remains the largest group in our economy and holds the bulk of the society's wealth. Despite the downturn in the markets, loss of home values and credit issues, this group has had many decades to accumulate wealth. But while Boomers are pulling back into protection mode, Gen Y is still preparing for or attending college, leaving college, establishing careers and starting families.

Marketers should remember that life or lifestyle changes represent significant opportunity. As members of the Y Generation finish school and begin to start to earn money, they are in a purchase mode. Even renters need furniture, electronics, household supplies, and entertainment. As they look to purchase homes, give birth to Generation Z, purchase larger cars, etc., the economy will receive a boost.

I'm not talking about Ytopia (since I must admit that I really don't understand what this is) but people who have studied the Y Generation suggest this group has very similar values and economic aspirations to their parents (perhaps "Echo Boomers" as 60 Minutes and Visa chose to call this group, is appropriate in these respects - although a Harris Poll would suggest this generation has other names for itself). They have been called "voracious consumers" and very brand oriented, versus their older Gen X cousins. They have been trained to be "doers and achievers." While clearly different based on their orientation to technology, let’s not also forget that their addiction to technology suggests they must spend to keep pace with Moore’s Law (which, incidentally, this month PC Magazine and Itel are suggesting will be broken with even faster growth).

Ultimately there is a lot of free information on specific generational influences and the similarities and differences between generations. I feel the 2007 PBS documentary "Generation Next" was particularly good, but email or leave a comment here if you wish for some additional links. But remember the bigger picture with a lighter heart.

My point is simply that while tight credit, growing unemployment, growing deficits and a number of other things the media seems to go on incessantly about create doom and gloom attitudes, demographics represent the scenario of a positive future.

So I ask you (few) readers to talk about this more positive outlook on our economic future as you hear talk of doom and gloom. Help to start a new attitude, or better still, a belief system around the direction our economy will take over the next few years. The demographic changes are real but our attitudes can help lead the way.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Sowing the Seeds of Prosperity

As the elastic band universe begins to snap back (or gyrate) I am wondering what seeds of prosperity might be put in this slingshot to be flung in the right direction.
Or perhaps another analogy is appropriate. I feel it is important to consider ways of creating positive energy versus feeding the fires of destruction. It may take time, but a forest will re-generate itself after a fire. The seeds that that find the choice locations and establish growth the soonest end up with the best light and as the tallest of trees.

Of course, Mother Nature will ultimately look after herself, but as the US Forest Service and the San Bernardino National Forest Association understands, there are plenty of opportunities to help the natural order by actually planting seeds.

I've spoken with several people from different walks of life over the past couple of week who acknowledge that it is natural for many companies to see marketing and advertising as an expense that may be the first to go in hard times. Yet just about ALL of these same people acknowledge that those that have the courage to market themselves aggressively in hard times will almost always be the ones that get out ahead. In fact people almost seem to believe this is conventional wisdom. But perhaps it is like the conventional wisdom IQ test which I just found. Many of ideas we have are somewhat more cliché than actually truly believed.

Ultimately the nature or character behind the seed (or brand, or business) will have a great deal to do with what grows first. Young White Spruce prefer to be slightly shaded. This tree usually begins under an Aspen forest. Aspens will re-sprout from solid roots after a fire. Aspen stands may actually grow bigger after a fire, when the sun has a chance to increase soil temperature and make it more favorable for suckering and root growth.

I am aspiring to be an Aspen - and not a White Spruce as the smoke begins to clear. I hope to spread already deep and broad roots. Rather than a shotgun approach of many seeds in a slingshot, perhaps the best approach under the current circumstances is to rebuild from strong roots.

On the other hand, I will be very interested to see what new seeds blow in and take hold as a result of the opportunity this forest fire has created. Some of this new growth will eventually be overshadowed by larger trees. But if and when appropriate, I may just choose to throw some of my own seeds into the wind.

Regardless, the trick will be to focus on the opportunity for growth versus staring at the smoldering fire. When more and more people stop focusing on the fires and start to notice plants re-growing, this growth is likely to become exponential. Yes, the forest may take a while to truly hide the ashes, but the biggest and strongest trees are likely to be those that started growing earliest.

In more human natural disaster terms, some economists who have studied the effects of hurricanes in Florida have talked about the positive "Jacuzzi effect". If the old bathroom is destroyed, one might as well upgrade and put in a Jacuzzi when rebuilding. It ultimately increases the value of the property. If enough people do this, a neighborhood is revitalized.