Sowing the Seeds of Prosperity

As the elastic band universe begins to snap back (or gyrate) I am wondering what seeds of prosperity might be put in this slingshot to be flung in the right direction.
Or perhaps another analogy is appropriate. I feel it is important to consider ways of creating positive energy versus feeding the fires of destruction. It may take time, but a forest will re-generate itself after a fire. The seeds that that find the choice locations and establish growth the soonest end up with the best light and as the tallest of trees.

Of course, Mother Nature will ultimately look after herself, but as the US Forest Service and the San Bernardino National Forest Association understands, there are plenty of opportunities to help the natural order by actually planting seeds.

I've spoken with several people from different walks of life over the past couple of week who acknowledge that it is natural for many companies to see marketing and advertising as an expense that may be the first to go in hard times. Yet just about ALL of these same people acknowledge that those that have the courage to market themselves aggressively in hard times will almost always be the ones that get out ahead. In fact people almost seem to believe this is conventional wisdom. But perhaps it is like the conventional wisdom IQ test which I just found. Many of ideas we have are somewhat more cliché than actually truly believed.

Ultimately the nature or character behind the seed (or brand, or business) will have a great deal to do with what grows first. Young White Spruce prefer to be slightly shaded. This tree usually begins under an Aspen forest. Aspens will re-sprout from solid roots after a fire. Aspen stands may actually grow bigger after a fire, when the sun has a chance to increase soil temperature and make it more favorable for suckering and root growth.

I am aspiring to be an Aspen - and not a White Spruce as the smoke begins to clear. I hope to spread already deep and broad roots. Rather than a shotgun approach of many seeds in a slingshot, perhaps the best approach under the current circumstances is to rebuild from strong roots.

On the other hand, I will be very interested to see what new seeds blow in and take hold as a result of the opportunity this forest fire has created. Some of this new growth will eventually be overshadowed by larger trees. But if and when appropriate, I may just choose to throw some of my own seeds into the wind.

Regardless, the trick will be to focus on the opportunity for growth versus staring at the smoldering fire. When more and more people stop focusing on the fires and start to notice plants re-growing, this growth is likely to become exponential. Yes, the forest may take a while to truly hide the ashes, but the biggest and strongest trees are likely to be those that started growing earliest.

In more human natural disaster terms, some economists who have studied the effects of hurricanes in Florida have talked about the positive "Jacuzzi effect". If the old bathroom is destroyed, one might as well upgrade and put in a Jacuzzi when rebuilding. It ultimately increases the value of the property. If enough people do this, a neighborhood is revitalized.

What Questions Will Be Asked?

As the dust settles around the financial crisis and perhaps as election fever begins to die next month, I think it may be important to understand what questions consumers will ask of our society, marketers and themselves. Perhaps just as important are the answers they will default to - in absence of good answers provided by those with the power to provide ideas.

Who is - and will be held responsible for the financial debacle taxpayers are footing the bill for?

More importantly, when will it be safe to spend what money we have on hand or have access to?

What trade-offs must be made in the meantime?

I have spent a big portion of my career asking consumer questions in qualitative and quantitative research, as well as in the company of smart minds. In what context does a category or brand play within a consumer's life? How does this consumer think about the category and the brand? Often there appears to be no simple or obvious answer. Often what appears might be the obvious answer - is not the correct one. A deeper insight is required. I've also seen cases where a deeper insight was desperately sought, but the answer was somewhat more obvious (parties will remain nameless on this blog).

Regardless of the specific answer, I believe it is even more important that we ask the appropriate questions - to which there may be more than one answer.

I took a very quick look for some statistics on how much money is spent on marketing research in this country. I suppose it is somewhat ironic, but I could find no research on the subject in the AMA, ARF, The Association of Consumer Research, or even Quirks or Greenbook and academic Marketing Research Institute International web sites.

Even the Marketing Research Association, 20o7 Annual Reports provides their own Net Assets of $2,475,530 in 2007 (bravo for managing your affairs much better than the independent Account Planning Association ever did before being rescued by the AAAA). But they do not indicate how much the U.S. market spends on marketing research. This would probably be very difficult to figure out - and perhaps some academic institution has done so somewhere along the line. But I believe it is fairly safe to say it is in the $billions.

My preference has often been to consider the broadest or contextual questions first and then narrow down to the more specific - although my experience is that not everyone has the time or patience (or funding) for this approach. But ethnographic research has grown in popularity over the past decade or so. I particularly admire the work done by my fellow countryman, Grant McCracken, having known people who have worked with him. But I confess that I have not read all of his books (I owned "Big Hair" at one point but have no idea where it is these days).

I'll bet that "Flock and Flow: Predicting and Managing Change in a Dynamic Marketplace" is a good one to pick up right now.

Ultimately, consumers themselves appear to be doing more research than ever before (albeit often unsophisticated) - given the access that the internet provides. Heck, Google (who is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today) with a global market cap of $106.25 Billion (and falling), based on a simple search page.

I would contend that there are segments of consumers who, by there nature -or connectivity to the web, ask a lot of questions and research a lot on the web. Even more consumers conduct research based on their level of involvement in a topic. But ultimately many of the questions that consumers might like to have answered are never properly articulated. Or people are simply too busy to go find an answer. But they will always default to some answer - even if they do this unconsciously.

The real marketing opportunity is not simply asking the questions we have, but figuring out what our target's questions might be and answering them for these consumers.

My Elastic Band Theory of our Universe

A few people who know me may have heard this one before. What I didn't realize until today, is that there actually is an Elastic Band Theory of tectonic plates as they relate to earthquakes as well as a theory called The Rubber Band (Dark Energy) Theory of the Universe - which relates to Einstein’s theory of relativity. The real thing is actually very scientific and perhaps geeky (as seen in this video).

I have tried to relate my thinking around the elastic nature of the universe to both cosmological and everyday aspects of life - including consumer behavior. It may be particularly relevant given the level of fear and panic in the financial markets right now.

I once used the concept of balancing on a fulcrum in a historical market analysis and strategy proposal to a wealth management client.

But a snapshot of the Rubber Band Theory video in midstream looks a lot like what the markets have done just as I have written this today:

Here are thoughts or examples around the broader concept:

• Everything is in a relative state of balance – not completely predictable, yet predictable from a larger perspective. The earth revolves around the sun in an elliptical orbit (versus circular).
• Our four seasons change and are predictable, but the weather next week is not.
• The circle of life is real but the variables often relatively vast. For instance most people on this planet will probably live within a short distance of where they have grown up, but the details of their lives, including relationships, jobs, etc are less predictable.
• When extreme forces push in one direction (political for an example), forces develop to push back.

I suppose this also relates to Newton’s Third Law of physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – although I’m not certain about the “equal” part. It may also relate to the idea of Yin-Yang or other balance concepts.

Unless we are witnessing the complete end of the stock market – which hardly seems likely from a hundred year perspective,
we are nearing one end of an elastic band as it relates to investor confidence. I would suggest there are significant opportunities to take advantage of the fact that the band will begin to contract soon. Exactly when is the less predictable time (and conditions) up for debate. But heck, the massively capitalized and strong business performance Dow stocks rather than just the Dogs of the Dow appear to be a huge bargain right now. We all know the smart investor will buy low and sell high. "Warren Buffet's Dirty Little Secret" really isn't that much of a secret.
Now if I only had a steady income and more cash in my pocket right now. Or the guts and patience to borrow and make money with other people’s money – which is what the credit markets are all about.
If anyone is reading this, I would love to hear your ideas of how the Elastic Band Theory of the Universe might work in other aspects of your life (or not).
Finally, on a related but different note, I find it just a little disturbing on a cosmological level that astronomers discovered (in 1998) that the expanding universe is actually accelerating vs. slowing down at the moment (perhaps my rubber band theory has holes?).