What Questions Will Be Asked?

As the dust settles around the financial crisis and perhaps as election fever begins to die next month, I think it may be important to understand what questions consumers will ask of our society, marketers and themselves. Perhaps just as important are the answers they will default to - in absence of good answers provided by those with the power to provide ideas.

Who is - and will be held responsible for the financial debacle taxpayers are footing the bill for?

More importantly, when will it be safe to spend what money we have on hand or have access to?

What trade-offs must be made in the meantime?

I have spent a big portion of my career asking consumer questions in qualitative and quantitative research, as well as in the company of smart minds. In what context does a category or brand play within a consumer's life? How does this consumer think about the category and the brand? Often there appears to be no simple or obvious answer. Often what appears might be the obvious answer - is not the correct one. A deeper insight is required. I've also seen cases where a deeper insight was desperately sought, but the answer was somewhat more obvious (parties will remain nameless on this blog).

Regardless of the specific answer, I believe it is even more important that we ask the appropriate questions - to which there may be more than one answer.

I took a very quick look for some statistics on how much money is spent on marketing research in this country. I suppose it is somewhat ironic, but I could find no research on the subject in the AMA, ARF, The Association of Consumer Research, or even Quirks or Greenbook and academic Marketing Research Institute International web sites.

Even the Marketing Research Association, 20o7 Annual Reports provides their own Net Assets of $2,475,530 in 2007 (bravo for managing your affairs much better than the independent Account Planning Association ever did before being rescued by the AAAA). But they do not indicate how much the U.S. market spends on marketing research. This would probably be very difficult to figure out - and perhaps some academic institution has done so somewhere along the line. But I believe it is fairly safe to say it is in the $billions.

My preference has often been to consider the broadest or contextual questions first and then narrow down to the more specific - although my experience is that not everyone has the time or patience (or funding) for this approach. But ethnographic research has grown in popularity over the past decade or so. I particularly admire the work done by my fellow countryman, Grant McCracken, having known people who have worked with him. But I confess that I have not read all of his books (I owned "Big Hair" at one point but have no idea where it is these days).

I'll bet that "Flock and Flow: Predicting and Managing Change in a Dynamic Marketplace" is a good one to pick up right now.

Ultimately, consumers themselves appear to be doing more research than ever before (albeit often unsophisticated) - given the access that the internet provides. Heck, Google (who is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today) with a global market cap of $106.25 Billion (and falling), based on a simple search page.

I would contend that there are segments of consumers who, by there nature -or connectivity to the web, ask a lot of questions and research a lot on the web. Even more consumers conduct research based on their level of involvement in a topic. But ultimately many of the questions that consumers might like to have answered are never properly articulated. Or people are simply too busy to go find an answer. But they will always default to some answer - even if they do this unconsciously.

The real marketing opportunity is not simply asking the questions we have, but figuring out what our target's questions might be and answering them for these consumers.

My Elastic Band Theory of our Universe

A few people who know me may have heard this one before. What I didn't realize until today, is that there actually is an Elastic Band Theory of tectonic plates as they relate to earthquakes as well as a theory called The Rubber Band (Dark Energy) Theory of the Universe - which relates to Einstein’s theory of relativity. The real thing is actually very scientific and perhaps geeky (as seen in this video).

I have tried to relate my thinking around the elastic nature of the universe to both cosmological and everyday aspects of life - including consumer behavior. It may be particularly relevant given the level of fear and panic in the financial markets right now.

I once used the concept of balancing on a fulcrum in a historical market analysis and strategy proposal to a wealth management client.

But a snapshot of the Rubber Band Theory video in midstream looks a lot like what the markets have done just as I have written this today:

Here are thoughts or examples around the broader concept:

• Everything is in a relative state of balance – not completely predictable, yet predictable from a larger perspective. The earth revolves around the sun in an elliptical orbit (versus circular).
• Our four seasons change and are predictable, but the weather next week is not.
• The circle of life is real but the variables often relatively vast. For instance most people on this planet will probably live within a short distance of where they have grown up, but the details of their lives, including relationships, jobs, etc are less predictable.
• When extreme forces push in one direction (political for an example), forces develop to push back.

I suppose this also relates to Newton’s Third Law of physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – although I’m not certain about the “equal” part. It may also relate to the idea of Yin-Yang or other balance concepts.

Unless we are witnessing the complete end of the stock market – which hardly seems likely from a hundred year perspective,
we are nearing one end of an elastic band as it relates to investor confidence. I would suggest there are significant opportunities to take advantage of the fact that the band will begin to contract soon. Exactly when is the less predictable time (and conditions) up for debate. But heck, the massively capitalized and strong business performance Dow stocks rather than just the Dogs of the Dow appear to be a huge bargain right now. We all know the smart investor will buy low and sell high. "Warren Buffet's Dirty Little Secret" really isn't that much of a secret.
Now if I only had a steady income and more cash in my pocket right now. Or the guts and patience to borrow and make money with other people’s money – which is what the credit markets are all about.
If anyone is reading this, I would love to hear your ideas of how the Elastic Band Theory of the Universe might work in other aspects of your life (or not).
Finally, on a related but different note, I find it just a little disturbing on a cosmological level that astronomers discovered (in 1998) that the expanding universe is actually accelerating vs. slowing down at the moment (perhaps my rubber band theory has holes?).

Under the 2 - or 'gauging' consumer behavior

When I am not driving my 80 mpg Malaguti Scooter around town (which can be challenging due to weather and distance), I unfortunately drive a gas guzzling Ford Ranger 4X4. But I have noticed that when I keep the tachometer gauge under the 2, my mileage improves significantly.
I believe this may have been something I heard a while back either from NPR's Click and Clack or someone else.

I would love to trade the truck in for a Prius these days, but can hardly justify the purchase of a new vehicle when the truck has long since been paid for. On the other hand, I can do my part to conserve and save money by driving slower. For my Ford Ranger, specifically this means accelerating much slower than usual from a standing start and driving at 55mph or lower on the highway. (According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a vehicle loses about one percent in fuel economy for every one mile per hour above 55 m.p.h. that it is driven.)
While I have thought about starting an "Under the 2" club, social network, movement, this may be a lost cause given that consumer behavior does not always match with consumer belief.
I learned a long time ago while working on GLAD garbage bags during a landfill crisis in the Toronto area that consumers say they want to do the right thing, but convenience and personal desires almost always overrule.
In the case of gas conservation, aside from the "go green" argument, a lot, if not most people, must know that a properly maintained car (including properly inflated tires (thanks Barack -which even FOX News acknowledged in 2006!) and simply avoiding rabbit starts can save them money at the pump. But although even I find it difficult to drive 'under the 2' when I am in a hurry, it never ceases to amaze me how often I am passed as I approach a red light, or get dirty looks for driving at 55 mph on the highway.
Are we all really in that much of a hurry? At what point does convenience or a little bit more of our time and effort intersect with our wallets? Of course an economist (or marketer) will tell you that the open market will always provide the answer. Many consumers will pay quite a bit for convenience and marketers will find ways to make money by saving you money. But what will be the tipping point for people driving and acting different in order to save gas?
As the price of gas falls to as low as $3.09 this week in some parts of Columbus and the price of oil dropped below $90/barrel today it will be very interesting to see where personal fears related to the economy intersect with personal habits. Sen. John Warner, R-Virginia has already proposed moving back to the 1970's 55 mph laws and that is getting the "one finger salute".
I have a better idea. Another vehicle in my name is a Volvo S40, which has an electronic gauge that, with the turn of a dial, can show you a number of things, including outside temperature, miles left in the gas tank, average miles per gallon you are getting over time - and most importantly - the gas mileage that you get while you are driving the car. It is amazing to see this measurement jump around as you put your foot on the accelerator slowly or quickly, or coast (it will max-out at 99.9 mph while coasting, which is fun to see). I propose we market the heck out of these types of gauges in all new cars and see if consumers develop some insight into their own driving behavior!

Online Customer Reviews - Influencers En Masse - or Connectors/Mavens?

It appears that a recent study has confirmed what I would have guessed was an 'almost-insight' around the influence of customer reviews. The study published June 23rd by OpinionResearch.com (ORC) states "83% of respondents polled indicated that online product evaluations and reviews had at least some level of influence on their purchasing decisions."

I would humbly suggest that there are at least two very different kinds of product (or service) reviews online generated by customers. Those offered by the retailer of the product or service and those found in public forums or sites that appear designed to attract those looking for opinions before a purchase. I would argue that the real influencers here are those that post to the retailer's web site.

Of course there are the product reviews by 'experts' or editors from magazines and online sites like cnet. They are actually being paid to be influencers (even when they are hopefully impartial).

There are other bloggers who are less obviously being paid to blog (not me yet - but I could easily be persuaded ;-).

I am simply suggesting that the reviews that are found on shopping sites like Amazon, CircuitCity.com, Orbitz and now even Kmart.com are likely to be the most influential by virtue of both their reach and their position within the purchase decision process.

While the web makes it relatively easy, I am betting that the majority of people will not do much research on their purchases. However, they will be influenced by what others are saying where they are purchasing.

There are consumers that will go to special sites such as epinions.com or visit blogs, or any number of sites such as those listed in the recent BusinessWeek article "Where Customers Go to Praise (or Bash) You." In fact the number of unique visitors to some these sites as suggested in this article is staggering (and perhaps misleading since it is unclear that all of these people are going to these sites for customer reviews). Then there are those customer review sites that purport to signal trends by virtue of their name, such as ThisNext.com.

There are other consumers that will pay to play with sites that potentially combine editorial and customer reviews, such as ConsumerReports.org, AngiesList (forgive me if I should be further separating reviews of national products versus local services - but I'm following the BusinessWeek lead). For specific audiences, these are terrific sites. For instance, Angie's List is a smart and growing business and brand, reportedly with "650,000 paying members, up from around 400,000 at the beginning of 2007" (and now reviewing doctors - I hear on NPR). But sites such as these represent a very small fraction of most markets for national or larger brands. I would speculate that while extremely influential to the subscriber, since the subscriber paid for the opinion, they may not be driving too many broader brand trends or market sales. In fact, in my experience, marketers do not pay very close attention to them (although perhaps they should).

What I would simply argue (albeit in a round-about way), is that there are those that set out to 'tip' opinion and influence through reviews. They will often influence people like themselves or those who make a habit of doing research on the web. They may also pull in those folks who may be making a highly involved or very large purchase decision - who might not otherwise take their time to do research.

The people posting to these opinion sites, as online "connectors" or influencers have the potential to start trends, but I have yet to see any really compelling argument that they do this consistently. Duncan Watts might argue this case well (see Sept. 8th post). But perhaps the fact that none of these sites has a market value anything close to a Google - or even an Amazon - is real proof of their level of influence (follow the money). On the other hand there are those critical 'point-of-purchase' reviews that may in many cases be generated by perhaps a broader group that want to share an experience, versus set out to be an influencer.

Heck, this may simply be the somewhat obvious 'almost-insight' that broader customer experience with a product or service is one of the most compelling factors of a brand success - especially if this experience is shared. I can't find any publicly available research, but I would suggest that online point-of-purchase sharing is likely to reach further and be the more influential than the special opinion sites or blogs. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough. Perhaps ORC has done further research in this area. But perhaps Amazon, Circuit City, travel sites and others have researched and understood this to be an insight.

A while back I was surprised that there were not more customer purchase reviews prominently displayed on more large retail sites. But I've recently noticed that many more large retailers, such as Best Buy, who did not appear to feature for many months after Circuit City did, prominently display this customer service now. Even Kmart prominently features customer reviews around their products now. Perhaps delays in getting here were because it means more work for the retailer (they have to collect, vet and post the reviews). But of course there are programs that once set up, will do most if not all of the work.

So the real influencers in the online space may be less the professional users of the product or service, and more those that have purchased the product from a large volume retailer. Perhaps an underlying 'almost-insight' is that point-of-purchase customer reviews may help to make online purchases feel smarter or safer than those made strictly in a bricks and mortar location.

In the meantime, if you are the type that likes to do more research online for a lot of different purchases (versus at point-of-purchase), you may want to check out and bookmark: Customer Feedback Central: 100 Places to Find Reviews for Every Product.

Cheers, The Spaniard

True Influencials

There was an article written in Fast Company (Is the Tipping Point Toast? -- Duncan Watts -- Trendsetting Fast Company) earlier this year that relates to an 'almost-insight' that I've wanted to talk about more for years.

Like Duncan Watts, I've had a problem with the concept of 'influencials", both as they are portrayed by Malcolm Gladwell and Ed Keller, former CEO of RoperASW and co-author of the The Influencials. I have been extremely skeptical that there are a group of people in society that can start trends by virtue of their personality or gregarious nature.

Watts contends that "a trend's success depends not on the person who starts it, but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend--not how persuasive the early adopter is, but whether everyone else is easily persuaded. " He has done an amazing job of applying math and experimental approaches to prove that these authors wrong. But I believe as both sides argue back and forth, they miss a somewhat obvious 'almost-insight'.

I believe that the most influential people in our society and most important to marketers are those that have specific job skills in the area of influence. GM has understood this for years as they advertised "Professional Grade" trucks. Nike and every other sports marketer has understood this when they use endorsements - simply on a local level through giving product away to high performing athletes. Tool or equipment manufacturers have understood this in designing and marketing products to home users. I have personally seen how primary care physicians watch what specialists do and copy their behavior and no longer referring all of their patients.

I have subscribed to emails from the Word of Mouth Association, WOMMA and like to look at the tactics that marketers use to try to create viral campaigns. I particularly admire Improv Everywhere in their ability to create viral messages. But if marketers really want people to buy things - there may be greater opportunities to leverage people who use their products or professional versions of these products in their work. Who would deny the true influence their favorite local chef might have in recommending ingredients or cookware? How about what sports equipment the trainer at the gym might recommend, auto parts recommended by the local mechanic - or even cleaning products by the cleaning lady?
This does not necessarily dismiss all of the influence that may be occurring over the web. But perhaps this is a good lead-in to future topic I would like to touch on - which is the influence of consumer reviews on the web....

so-called-insight

Here goes. Something for the ages. Not that anyone but an HR director might look at this in the process of checking references. But I've been thinking about joining the blogging community for some time now. I'm taking the plunge, despite reading the WikiHow How to Dissuade Yourself from Becoming a Blogger (A worthy read, I say, at risk of being one of those people that post calls out).

I have been in the idea business for many years. I may have even had a few good ones. But I have yet to publish much and I consider this as simply practice in getting my thoughts on an electronic page. As I said to a friend in Denver just now, I hope nobody reads this until I get better at expressing myself in this forum.

The title of this Blog "Almost-Insightful" is risky at the same time as being a little tongue-in-cheek. In the advertising agency business (which I have been in for more than two decades), I am not the first person to observe that the term "insight" is often thrown around far too loosely.

Creative people are often looking for an insight in the strategy or brief (rightly so), but the written so-called-insight is often something very obvious to those who are only somewhat familiar with the category or brand. Sometimes this is because true research (including time and money) has not been done. Sometimes the research has been done and there just isn't a compelling insight. Sometimes the strategy is somewhat obvious but simply needs to have a nuance or be expressed in an elegant or metaphorical manner.

So while I like to think of myself on the front end of observing potential emerging trends and often able to see a bigger picture or underlying theme, I write this knowing that most of my thoughts may not be incredibly insightful to many people. Because I may only have time to make some observations and perhaps do some secondary research on the things which I will touch. While I have some potential themes or 'thesis ideas' I hope to delve into, we shall see where this goes.

More to be revealed.